Views on global warming

National Journal has released a new poll which surveyed 113 members of Congress about their views on global warming. The results were unbelievable. Although many scientific evidence concluded that human activities are responsible for much of the recent warming, only 13% of congressional Republicans say they believe that human activity is causing global warming, compared to 95% of congressional Democrats.

Well, man sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest.

The math of politics

E=MC2 (Election = Message times Candidate squared)

Explanation: people vote for a candidate they trust with the right message. For the mid-term election just passed, it looks like to me that Republicans never found their true voice and the message on why they should have stayed in power.

The formula was coined by Joe Gaylord in his book "Flying Upside Down".

Atheists - the least trusted group in America ?

It is well known that most people (90%, suggested by the most recent poll) in US believe in God or a supreme spirit . A recent University of Minnesota study there are only 1% of the national mix dares to identify itself as atheists, and that lonely group is the least trusted one in America.

However, one recent Harris poll study found that 42% of adult Americans were not "absolutely certain" about the existence of God, up from 34% three years ago.

Source: USNEWS, Nov.13, 2006

Does weekend polls favor the Democrats ?

In US, it's a common claim that weekend political phone polls skewed toward the Democrats. Here is the reasoning: on the weekend, the people who are most likely to answer their phones are older people who are more likely to be at home, so the polls may not be representative of all Americans; the poll samples could have a bias toward the older people. My dad told me this claim few time before.

However, a recent review rebuffed this common claim. For the last 3 presidential elections, among the Sunday-to-Thursday people polled in 2004, 49% supported Bush and 46% supported Kerry. Polls of the stay-at-home, Friday-to-Saturday folkls produced similar numbers - 48% and 46%.

It is reassuring that our polling methodology and standards have much more scientific merit than common claims.

U.S. federal deficit in 2006

The amount of this year's U.S. federal deficit is $248 billion. Small compared to the projection of $423 billion, but still one of the largest in U.S. history.

Source: chicago tribune, 10/12/06

Death toll of Iraq invasion

Around 655,000 people have died in Iraq as a result of the US-led coalition invasion, according to the largest scientific analysis yet. That is 2.5% of the country's entire population. The study was conducted by US and Iraqi scientists to determine how many Iraqis have died since the invasion in March 2003.

Source: Lancet: (vol 364, p 1857)

Christian and Darwinian

According to a 2005 Pew Research Center poll, 60% of Republicans are creationists, whereas only 11% accept evolution, compared with 29% of Democrats who are creationists and 44% who accept evolution. A 2005 Harris Poll found that 63% of liberals but only 37% of conservatives believe that humans and apes have a common ancestry.

Source link

America's school are failing us

997 - the average number of hours a U.S. child spends in class per year.

1,023 - the average number of hours a U.S. child spends watching TV.

30% students don't graduate from high school.

40% of college freshmen need remedial classes because they are unprepared.

Source - Reader Digest (Oct. 2006)

Tall people earn more

It is been know for some time that tall people earn more, each additional inch of height adds roughly 2% to average annual earnings, for both men and women. In a new study, two scientists from Princeton University, find that tall people earn more, because they're smarter, on average. It is possible that early childhood care, including prenatal care, can increase both height and cognitive ability.

Americans fail the test on evolution

1/3 American adults do not believe in evolution, a far larger fraction than in most European countries, a new study revealed. Of the 34 countries surveyed, only Turkey had a smaller percentage of adults who believed in evolution.

Michigan State University's Jon D. Miller, who carried out the research, theorized that "Individuals who hold a strong belief in a personal God—and who pray frequently—were significantly less likely to view evolution as probably or definitely true than adults with less conservative religious views."

What Iranians believe

According to a poll conducted inside of Iran -
46% of Iranians believe America is dangerous and seeks control.
52% strongly agree that Israel is illegitimate and should not exist.
48% believe it is most important to increase rights for woman.
41% agree the most important long-term goal for Iran is to reforming the economy so it operates more efficiently.
36% like to see Iran's society become more religious and conservative.

Cost of War

This web site has the running total of the U.S. taxpayer cost of the Iraq War.

Many people think US Tax system is not fair

An recent Ipsos Poll found almost six of 10 people, 58%, say the system is unjust, a number that is virtually unchanged from 20 years ago. People think the middle class, the self-employed and small businesses pay too much in taxes, while those with high incomes and big businesses don’t pay enough.

Three year Iraq war stats

1) total civilian deaths - 33,661
2) US military casualties - 2,314, UK military casualties 103

3) Iraqi police killed - 1,914

4) the cost of US military - $200 million each and every day
5) number of WMDs found - 0
6) the average Iraqi policeman, doctor, teacher or soldier earns 5 or 10 times his previous salary
7) Iraqi security forces currently only controlled about 50% of the country

8) prospect of future - most Iraqis expect to face at least several more years of sectarian violence and instability

9) President George W. Bush approval rating - only 29% of the people surveyed - a new low- approved Bush’s handling of the situation in Iraq

10) Iraq political freedom - from none to dozens of newspapers, television stations and political parties

Who do we trust ?

Worldwide, people are less and less willing to trust top-down messages delivered through mass media.

In 6 of the 11 countries recently surveyed, the "person like yourself or your peer" is seen as the most credible spokesperson about a company and among the top three spokespeople in every country surveyed. This has advanced steadily over the past three years.

In the US, for example, the "person like yourself or your peer" was only trusted by 22% of respondents as recently as 2003, while in this year's study, 68% of respondents said they trusted a peer. Contrast to that the CEO, who ranks in the bottom half of credible sources in all countries, at 28% trust in the US, near the level of lawyers and legislators. In China, the "person like yourself or your peer" is trusted by 54% of respondents, compared to the next highest spokesperson, a doctor, at 43%.

I am surprised to see that more people in US than in China trust peers more than authorities. China has been considered as a low-trust society, and US is a high-trust society. Number above shows the trust level in US has eroded in recent years.

Also in the above survey, "friends and family" and "colleagues" rank as two of the three most credible sources for information about a company, just behind articles in business magazines. Again, in the US, the "colleagues" number has jumped from 38% in 2003 to 56% in 2006.

Source link

Why Republicans are happier than Democrats ?

The recent Pew poll confirms a 30 plus years, longstanding trend: Republicans say they are happier than Democrats. This year, 45% of Republicans said they were “very” happy as opposed to 29% of Democrats. That’s a big gap.

What make people happy? After using statistical technique known as multiple regression analysis (which gauges the relationship between each factor and happiness while controlling for all the other factors), the analysis shows that the most important factors to happiness are good health, decent income, high church attendance, being married and, yes, being a Republican. So the conclusion is this - happiness is probably connected to some other facet of life that also inclines people to be Republicans.

The corruption of nations

Nearly 50% of the world's nations are corrupt -- according to the Transparency International and a German-based think tank at the University of Passau.

"In some nations, the corruption is as basic as greasing the palms of the village police chief to let a bar stay open an hour past the regular closing time, or paying off a telephone company clerk to expedite installation of a phone line. In other cases, corruption means millions in payoffs, often to secret foreign-bank accounts, where development funds are siphoned that should have been used to expedite roads, schools, bridges or basic health and sanitary facilities designed to improve the lives of their people. "

However, there is doubt that corruption causes great harm to national economies, reports Jakob Svensson, an economist at the World Bank and Stockholm University. "China has been able to grow fast while being ranked among the most corrupt countries," Svensson notes.

Harvard University's Samuel Huntington argued that briberty and other shady practices have a bright side, helping firm operate efficiently in countries hampered by heavy-handed bureaucracies.

Source: "Eight Questions About Corruption", Journal of Economics Perspectives", Summer 2005.